India’s control over the waters of the Indus River and its water-sharing policy, on the one hand, and rising sea levels on the other, have combined to push the Indus Delta, located in the southern tip of Pakistan, to the brink of collapse. Forty villages in the region are now almost deserted, with more than 1.2 million people forced to flee their homes in the past few years.

The delta’s economic backbone is agriculture and fish farming, but as the sea encroaches on the saline water, both these industries are now facing extinction. Homes, farms, water sources—everything is sinking into the sea. Many villages have been wiped out, and people are slowly fleeing to cities like Karachi.

According to a study by the think tank Jinnah Institute, about 80 percent of the population has left the delta since 1950. Since 1990, the salinity of the water has increased by 70 percent, making farming impossible. Where 26,000 people lived in 1981, that number has dropped to 11,000 in 2023.

This scenario is not only an environmental disaster for Pakistan, but also a terrifying realization in terms of water security, population displacement, and national security.